INTRODUCTION
On 2 April 2025, US President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 30% import tariff on a wide range of foreign goods, including several mineral commodities. While some of South Africa’s key mineral exports have been spared, others face serious exposure, threatening demand, investment, and global economic stability. Key stakeholders in mining, such as the Minerals Council South Africa, have voiced concern about the broader effects of this policy shift on the mining industry.
LEGAL AND TRADE IMPACT
The US tariffs have been framed as part of a broader “reciprocal trade” strategy aimed at penalising countries with trade surpluses against the United States. The Trump administration has not channelled these measures through multilateral dispute processes, instead implementing them unilaterally. This approach bypasses traditional World Trade Organisation mechanisms and introduces legal and commercial uncertainty, especially for mineral-exporting countries like South Africa.
The Minerals Council expressed concern over the broader economic and market implications of the tariffs, including their potential impact on mineral demand and investor sentiment.
MINERALS EXCLUDED FROM TARIFFS
Several of South Africa’s most valuable mineral exports were excluded from the 30% import tariff:
| Mineral | Primary Uses |
| PGMs (Platinum Group Metals) | Autocatalysts (emission control in vehicles), hydrogen fuel cells, jewellery |
| Coal | Electricity generation, steel production (coking coal) |
| Gold | Investment (reserves, bullion), jewellery, electronics |
| Manganese | Steel production (ferromanganese), battery components |
| Chrome | Stainless steel manufacturing, chemical industry |
| Vanadium | High-strength steel alloys, grid-scale batteries |
| Niobium, Tantalum, Zirconium Ores/Concentrates | Aerospace, electronics, nuclear reactors |
Although PGMs such as platinum, palladium, and rhodium were excluded from the tariffs, the sector remains vulnerable due to secondary effects on the automotive industry, which is the largest global consumer of PGMs. These metals are essential components in autocatalysts, which reduce vehicle exhaust emissions. However, the US has also imposed a 25% tariff on all vehicle imports, making cars more expensive and dampening demand both in the US and in foreign markets that supply vehicles to the US.
This expected decline in vehicle production and sales reduces the immediate demand for PGMs, potentially lowering prices and increasing volatility in the short term. The Minerals Council has expressed concern that this could affect South African PGM producers, who rely heavily on stable export markets linked to automotive demand.
MINERALS SUBJECT TO TARIFFS
The following South African exports have not been exempted and now fall within the tariff net:
| Mineral/Product | Primary Uses |
| Diamonds | Jewellery, industrial cutting/drilling tools |
| Iron Ore | Steel production |
| Metal Jewellery | Consumer luxury goods |
| Granulated Slag | Cement manufacturing, road construction |
CASE STUDY: THE PETRA DIAMONDS CULLINAN TENDER DELAY
The uncertainty caused by the tariffs has already begun to reshape operational decisions. On 9 April 2025, Petra Diamonds delayed its tender for gems from the Cullinan Mine (one of South Africa’s most iconic diamond sources) citing ambiguity over how US tariffs would apply. Although Petra proceeded with auctions from its Finsch (SA) and Williamson (Tanzania) mines, it withheld 200,000 carats from Cullinan due to concerns about price stability.
This delay sent a clear signal to markets: Petra’s share price dropped by 6.1% on the day of the announcement, reflecting investor anxiety over both lost revenue opportunities and longer-term trade risks. The case illustrates how even tariff speculation can unsettle operations, weaken confidence, and affect capitalisation.
CONCLUSION
While South Africa’s critical exports like PGMs and gold have avoided immediate penalty, broader trade uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the mining sector. The exposure of diamonds and iron ore—along with indirect pressure on automotive-linked minerals—shows how globally integrated supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitically motivated trade interventions.
Strategic legal engagement, policy foresight, and diversification of export markets will be vital as South Africa navigates this new era of tariff-driven global trade.
